Sep 4, 2020
In evaluating COVID-19 and the
financial crisis, Ronald Leven speaks both to the unprecedented
nature that make predictions regarding world finances difficult to
the economic principles that help us parse out what we do know.
He addresses
- How "zombie businesses" are a concern and why the failure-and-launch dynamic powers the importance of emerging markets,
- Why one of his biggest concerns regarding our economics is a second wave of unemployment, and
- What are his thoughts on inflation possibilities and how to assess the stock market data.
Ronald Leven is the W.R. Huff
Professor of the Practice in the Department of Economics at Duke
University and author of the monthly Market Voice newsletter. Before coming to Duke, he worked as an
international economist with the New York Federal Reserve and with
a variety of financial intuitions before spending several years
with Thompson Reuters.
In this podcast, he speaks to the U.S. economy as well as
international markets and how
emerging economies might look in the coming years.
He emphasizes his concern that
we will see a second wave of layoffs. Furthermore, he's
worried that this layoff round will not be met with much government
support and fears the potential for an increase in our homeless
population.
In addition, he discusses the effects of stimulus efforts and
possibilities of inflation. In fact, he feels this is the first
time in 30 years that we have a real risk of inflation because of
this mismatch of artificial demand levels with supply constraints.
He explains why this is a problem in more detail and gives his
thoughts on how the Federal Reserve might respond regarding
interest rates.
He also addresses how our
economy may suffer for a while from the "zombie company" effect,
which means that companies which shouldn't be able to survive are
able to because of stimulus efforts. Meanwhile these companies take
resources, such as bank loans, but really aren't a contributing
force.
He explains how this makes for a weaker economy with less force and
vigor. He also addresses how he evaluates the stock market numbers,
what real estate seems to be doing, and what long-term impacts may
exist in planning based on preparing for future COVID-like
emergencies.
You can access his
newsletter Market
Voice through
his LinkedIn sight after requesting access.
Available on Apple Podcasts: apple.co/2Os0myK